It was just an incredible winter across North America with the United States having its warmest December through February on record. So it’s no surprise that the first 12 days of March are averaging warm and wet with lots of rain and very little cold.
It looks as though spring is going to continue to be above average in terms of temperature and even if it never rains again the rest of the month, it would still come out above average with precipitation. So far, March is averaging 6 degrees above average with over 4.19 inches of rainfall.
The rest of spring
Inevitably, when I see comments about spring weather around here they often lack a connection to our typical reality. Average temperatures by the end of March are in the 50s and the lower 60s by April, with 70s more typical of May, especially the second half.
Advertisement
The number of days in the 60s and 70s during meteorological spring (March 1-May 31) obviously goes up with time —starting quite low in March and rising significantly by May.
Snowfall is typically around 9 inches this month — about what we’ve seen the entire winter this year. While not impossible, it’s unlikely we’re going to see much, if any, snow over the next two and a half weeks and into April.
The ensemble group of models shows very little signal of any snow through nearly the rest of the month. With the ground so warm already and the pattern the way it’s been, it’s not surprising.
April and May
So what about April and May? Those two months obviously will be turning warmer. There’s also still going to be some cold days and we’ll have to watch for frost, especially in April and the first part of May.
One possible concern: If we continue on this milder-than-average trend the rest of this month and some of the fruit trees begin to blossom, it will make them more susceptible to a late frost and damage. Typically, Boston’s last date of frost is early April, but this year it might end up as March 9, the last 32-degree low so far.
Advertisement
La Niña?
Unlike last year, when we were coming out of La Niña and heading into El Niño, this year we’re coming out of El Niño likely going neutral or even into a La Niña this summer. My personal hope is that we have somewhat regular rainfall without long bouts of dry or wet weather.
The past couple of years have been so inconsistent with feast or famine in the precipitation department over the warmer months. This puts stress on plants either with too much water promoting disease or too little water hurting plants, without a lot of drought resilience.
‘Very warm nights’
One thing that is likely are more “very warm nights” with humidity this summer. Over the past few decades, the nights in the summer have become much warmer. There are fewer days with cool, refreshing Canadian air once we get into the middle of June -- the time of year when you might have been able to get away without air conditioning in the middle of the last century. But that is no longer the case.
